A United Ireland Plebiscite Should Not Become 'A Sequel to Brexit', Analysts Alert

Ten years after the UK entered into a rushed referendum that split the country and triggered turmoil, a warning is issued from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.

The government and voters drifted into Brexit and the same may happen with a referendum on a unified Ireland, initiating convulsions for which nobody is prepared.

That represents the warning from two leading writers from each side of the Irish border who have collaborated to analyse the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.

Political Structures Ill-Equipped

The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have determined that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely unready for a possibly contentious and seismic referendum.

"The crucial insight of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that developments can come out of the blue and can gather momentum rapidly," O’Toole remarked. "I would suggest that the governmental framework of our archipelago remains highly fragile."

Released Volume Intends to Encourage Dialogue

The duo have studied the governmental, economic and societal rationales for any governmental shift in a publication, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.

They hope to provoke discussion on the issue with a roadshow of public talks that will bring them to Westminster soon.

"What concerns all parties, or ought to concern all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented O’Toole.

"We should prevent a national vote on a binary, ambiguous question whose implications have not been spelled out because then you land with an extremely split population where people who have lost are unable to accept defeat and the people who have won don't know quite what it is that they have gained."

Legal Framework

Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland government minister must arrange a referendum on Irish unification if it appears likely that a most voters would support.

Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups argue such a time is looming, and a organisation called pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but both governments and pro-UK factions play down the possibility, resulting in ambiguity whether or when there will be a referendum.

Absence of Informed Dialogue

Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unification has hidden the lack of substantive discussion, said the journalist.

"People tend to be supportive or opposed the idea but the actual thinking which could extend past that to make it possible hasn't for the most part happened. A great deal has taken place in scholarly circles but very few government figures or activists seek to involve themselves even with the fundamentals. As an example, what sort of state might be preferred? Centralised? Federal?"

Volume's Strategy

In the volume, neither author endorses unity or the status quo. Each composes two articles that aim for neutrality in laying out the argument for a unified Ireland and the case opposing it, marshalling financial and societal statistics, past examples and structural examples.

Debates range over flags and symbols, levies, health services, pensions, public liabilities and the risk of pro-UK militancy. The aim is to enlighten and provoke conversation.

"There is significant curiosity in the issue but there has not yet occurred a dialogue," commented O’Toole. "Discussion implies an recognition of the concept that there could be valid points on each side."

Parallel Votes

A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters report they support unification but oppose paying higher taxes or implementing a different emblem to acknowledge pro-UK communities' UK heritage.

"Policymakers in Ireland should determine what the proposal from nationalist groups is aside from just saying: 'We desire a united Ireland and we welcome you'," said O’Toole.

Probability of Referendum

The journalist considers a referendum in his era is likely and that it could happen unexpectedly. "You could have just a reckless or a poor or a negligent government minister who says: 'Let us proceed and resolve it.'"

Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, valid points, he stated. "One side will prevail on this issue and the other side will eventually lose but both parties has got something to gain from the alternative viewpoints."

Appeal for More Extensive Debate

Westminster must participate in the dialogue, stated O’Toole. "This concerns your state. It's a UK matter just as much as it is an Irish matter."